The hot hand phenomenon is the belief that a person who has had success in a task (like scoring in basketball) is more likely to continue to have success in subsequent attempts. Initially dismissed as a cognitive bias or fallacy, later research has shown that there may be instances where the hot hand truly exists, particularly among certain players, though not universally. Evidence remains mixed and suggests that the effect size is often small and only observable in specific contexts.
In basketball, a player who has made several successful shots in a row might be perceived as having the 'hot hand', leading fans and commentators to believe they are more likely to score their next shot, despite statistical evidence suggesting past success doesn't influence future outcomes.
To overcome the hot hand fallacy, it is important to rely on statistical analysis and objective data rather than subjective beliefs and perceptions about success streaks.