The neglect of probability is a cognitive bias where individuals disregard probability when making decisions under uncertainty. This leads people to overlook small risks entirely or to overestimate them, resulting in poor decision-making. For example, individuals may significantly overreact to exaggerated risks while ignoring statistical likelihoods, thereby violating normative decision-making rules.
In a notable psychological study, participants exhibited the same level of anxiety whether they faced a guaranteed electric shock or a 50% chance of receiving one, indicating that they failed to adjust their emotional responses based on probability.
To combat neglect of probability, individuals should focus on actual statistical evidence and trained decision-making frameworks that help assess risk more objectively, rather than relying on intuition or emotional responses.