Normalcy bias is a cognitive bias that results in individuals disbelieving or minimizing warnings of impending threats, leading them to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its potential consequences. This phenomenon can lead people to inadequately prepare for emergencies like natural disasters or market crashes, with around 80% of people displaying this bias during such events.
A prime example of normalcy bias was observed when many residents of New Orleans chose not to evacuate during Hurricane Katrina, despite clear warnings of the impending disaster. Many people thought, ‘It won't happen to me,’ which led to tragic outcomes.
To overcome normalcy bias, individuals should actively seek information, develop contingency plans, and mentally rehearse response strategies for emergencies, recognizing that threats can occur unexpectedly.