The outcome bias is an evaluation error that occurs when individuals assess the quality of a decision based on its known outcome rather than the decision-making process or information available at the time. This bias leads to holding decision-makers accountable for results determined by chance, thereby disadvantaging those whose decisions coincide with poor outcomes, regardless of their reasoning or intention.
In one study, a surgeon's decision to perform a risky surgery was rated more negatively if the patient died (bad outcome) compared to if the patient recovered (good outcome), despite the circumstances being the same.
To counter outcome bias, evaluate decisions based on the information available at the time they were made, rather than the resulting outcomes.