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Turkey illusion is a cognitive bias that occurs when individuals are surprised by a break in a trend due to a lack of understanding of the underlying causes or framework of that trend. The concept was introduced by Bertrand Russell to highlight issues in inductive reasoning.
Example
In the turkey illusion, a turkey is well-fed and cared for daily, leading it to believe it is safe, especially on the day before Thanksgiving when its confidence is highest. However, it is slaughtered unexpectedly on that day.
How to overcome this bias
To overcome the turkey illusion, one must be aware of potential trend breaks and examine the underlying reasons behind trends instead of relying solely on past experiences.